Horacio Arló-Costa

CFE Associate Director, Sept 2010-August 2011

Horacio Arló-Costa

In the final, explosively productive year of his life, Horacio Arló-Costa graciously committed himself to the Associate Directorship of the Center for Formal Epistemology. It was truly a labor of love for Horacio, who enthusiastically agreed to "put the pedal to the metal" during the CFE's first year of operation. The superlative record of the CFE's first year is posted here in lasting memory of Horacio's tremendous contribution to its lasting success.



The CFE's 2010-2011 Program

June 26-27, 2010, CFE Opening Celebration

Paul Egre, Vagueness: Tolerant, Classical, Strict

Branden Fitelson, Rutgers, The Problem of Irrelevant Conjunction --- Revisited

Stephan Hartmann, Tilburg, Confirmation and Reduction: A Bayesian Account

James Joyce, Michigan, A Defense of Imprecise Credences in Inference and Decision Making

Hans Kamp, Stuttgart, Back and Forth between Language and Thought

Hannes Leitgeb, Ludwig-Maximiliens University, Reducing Belief Simpliciter to Degrees of Belief

Rohit Parikh, CUNY, Behavior and Belief 

Oliver Schulte, Simon Fraser, Causal Models for Relational Data

Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon, Getting to Know your Probabilities: Three ways to frame personal probabilities for decision making.

Wilfried Sieg, Carnegie Mellon, Structural Proof Theory: Uncovering Aspects of the Mathematical Mind

Brian Skyrms, UC Irvine,
The Concepts of Information and Deception in Signalling Games

Wolfgang Spohn, Konstanz, A Guided Tour through the Cosmos of Ranking Theory

James Woodward, Pittsburgh,
Causal Learning and Judgment: Covariation and Contact Mechanics

September 2, 2010, Colloquium

Robert Batterman, University of Pittsburgh
Explaining Regularities:  The Need for Singular Behavior

September 24, 2010, Informal Lunchtime Talk

Yasuo Deguchi, University of Kyoto
Three Prisoners Problem and Likelihoodism

September 30, 2010, Distinguished Alumnus Lecture

Robert Malkin, Senior Software Engineer, Google
Predicting Bounce Rates in Sponsored Search

October 7, 2010, Philosophy Colloquium

Kevin Knuth, SUNY Albany.
Quantification and the Origin of Physical Law:  The Feynman Complex Formalism of Quantum Mechanics

October 22,  2010, Nagel Lecture

Brian Skyrms, U.C. Irvine
On the Dynamics of Signaling

October 21,  2010, Nagel Lecture

Brian Skyrms, U.C. Irvine
Signals: Evolution, Learning and Information

October 19,  2010, Nagel Lecture

Brian Skyrms, U.C. Irvine
Naturalizing the Social Contract

November 17, 2010, Informal Lunchtime Talk

Timothy Williamson, Wykeham Professor of Logic, Oxford  University
Necessitism, Contingentism and Plural Quantification

November 18, 2010, Philosophy Colloquium

Timothy Williamson, Wykeham Professor of Logic, Oxford  University
Improbable Knowledge

November 22, 2010, Center for Ethics and Policy (CEP) Colloquium

Russell Powell, Oxford University
In Genes We Trust: Germ-Line Modification and the Preservation of Human Good

December 1, 2010, CFE Workshop

Experience, Heuristics, and Choice:  Prospects for Bounded Rationality
Schedule and abstracts


Ralph Hertwig, University of Basel
Jonathan Leland, National Science Foundation
Paul Pedersen, Carnegie Mellon University
Elke Weber, Columbia University
Jerome Busemeyer, Indiana Universityi at Bloomington
Coty Gonzalez, Carnegie Mellon University
Tim Pleskac, Michigan State University
J.D. Trout, Loyola University
Horacio Arlo-Costa, Carnegie Mellon University


David Danks, Carnegie Mellon University
Kevin Kelly, Carnegie Mellon University
Richard Samuels, Ohio State University

December 2, 2010, Informal Lunchtime Talk

Michael Shaffer, St. Cloud State University
Knowledge, Rationality, and Scientific Idealization

January 20, 2011, Philosophy Colloquium:

Cosma Shalizi, Carnegie Mellon University
Praxis and Ideology in Bayesian Statistics

March 3, 2011, Philosophy Colloquium:

Wayne Myrvold, University of Western Ontario
Maxwell and a Third Second Law of Thermodynamics.

March 16, 2011, CFE Symposium on Uncertain Acceptance

Hannes Leitgeb, Ludwig-Maximiliens-University
The Lockean Thesis Revisited
Horacio Arlo-Costaand Paul Pedersen, Carnegie Mellon University
Reducing Belief To Degrees of Belief: A General Theory of Probability Cores
Hanti Lin and Kevin T. Kelly
Propositional Reasoning that Tracks Probabilistic Reasoning

March 28, 2011, Center for Ethics and Policy Colloquium:

Gusfaf Arrhenius, Stockholm University
The Impossibility of a Satisfactory Population Ethics

March 31, 2011, Philosophy Colloquium:

Anil Gupta, University of Pittsburgh
Conditionals in Theories of Truth

April 6, 2011, Informal Lunchtime Talk: 

Michiel van Lambalgen, University of Amsterdam
A Formalisation of Kant's Transcendental Logic

April 7, 2011, Philosophy Colloquium: 

Michiel van Lambalgen, University of Amsterdam
Logical Modelling of Cognitive Processes: the Case of Autism

April 21, 2011, Philosophy Colloquium:

Mic Detlefsen, Notre Dame University
Freedom in Mathematics

April 22, 2011, Informal Lunchtime Talk

Rachel Briggs, University of Sydney and NYU
Two Interpretations of the Ramsey Test

May 5, 2011, Philosophy and CMU-Pitt Program in Computational Biology Joint Colloquium

Ioannis Tsamardinos, University of Crete
Toward Integrative Causal Analysis of Heterogeneous Datasets and Prior Knowledge

June 22, 2011, Informal Lunchtime Talk: 

Emmanuel J. Genot, University of Lund
A Little Semantics is a Dangerous Thing

Episteme Conference, held jointly with the CFE.

June 24
  • Kevin Zollman (CMU, Philosophy): Tutorial on Networks.
  • Conor Mayo-Wilson (CMU, Philosophy), Specialization in the Sciences and the Acquisition of Truth.
  • Marcus Pivato (Trent University, Philosophy), A statistical approach to epistemic democracy.
  • Matthew Kopec (University of Wisconsin, Madison, Philosophy), It¹s Good to Agree: A Problem with Goldman's Group Scoring Rule and an Odd Consequence of Fixing It.
  • Brian Robert Hedden (MIT, Philosophy), Decision Theory and Dutch Books.
  • Paul Pedersen (CMU, Philosophy) Dutch Books for primitive conditional probability and lexicographic decision making.
  • Teddy Seidenfeld (CMU, Philosophy) Scoring Rules and Dutch Book.
  • Khalifa, Kareem (Middlebury College), Collective Epistemic Goals and Theoretical Unity.
  • Raphael Kunstler (University of Aix-Marseille) Aggregating collective judgment in scientific research.
June 25
  • Klaus Nehring (UC Davis, Economics), Aggregating Beliefs, Aggregating Values.
  • Patricia Rich (CMU, Philosophy), Common Belief, Revision, and Backward Induction.
  • Alexandru Baltag (Amsterdam, ILLC), TBA.
  • Eric Pacuit (Tilburg and Maryland, Philosophy) and Olivier Roy (Munich), Paradoxes of Interactive Rationality: A Unified View.
  • Rohit Parikh (CUNY, Philosophy and Computer Science), Knowledge, Common Knowledge, and Games.
  • Marciano Siniscalchi (Northwestern, Economics), Epistemic foundations of game theory.
  • Emmanuel Genot (Lund, Philosophy) How can yes-no questions be informative? Strategic vs. semantic information in games with unaware players.
  • Horacio Arlo-Costa (CMU, Philosophy) and Patricia Rich (CMU), Fast and Frugal Heuristics for some two player extensive form games of perfect information.
  • Gerhard Schurz (Dusseldorf, Philosophy), Meta-induction and the social spread of reliable knowledge.
June 26
  • Rogier De Langhe (Ghent University, Belgium), Peer disagreement under multiple epistemic systems.
  • Maria Lasonen Aarnio (Michigan, Philosophy), Disagreement and Evidential Attenuation.
  • Stephan Hartmann Soroush Rafiee-Rad (Tilburg, Philosophy), Voting, Deliberation, and Truth.
  • Ville Aarnio (University of Helsinki), Credence Pooling via Geometric Aggregation of Betting Ratios.
  • Hanti Lin and Kevin Kelly (CMU) Probabilistic acceptance rules.
  • Brian Skyrms (UCI) Learning to Signal with Two Kinds of Trial and Error.
  • Elliott Wagner, (UCI), Chaos and Signaling.
  • Simon M. Huttegger and Brian Skyrms (UCI), Low-Rationality learning for networks.

Requiem Aeternam Horacio